Presidential Winner Predicted, A University of Colorado (CU) analysis of the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election predicts that Mitt Romney will win the election in November. The model used for the prediction is one that has correctly predicted all presidential elections since 1980, including George W. Bush losing the popular vote but still winning the election in 2000.
“For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,” said Michael Berry, political science professor at CU. “The economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office. What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If it’s the former, the president may receive credit for the economy’s trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008.”
The prediction model uses an analysis of economic factors to determine an outcome for each of the 50 U.S. states. It was developed by Berry and his fellow CU political science professor Kenneth Bickers. Two of the factors the model takes into account include state and national unemployment numbers and changes in real per capita income, both of which affect Democratic and Republican candidates differently.